You know in the publishing world how a solid agent can look at a manuscript that is very raw and know in their heart that it will sell? Or how a professional gambler will know where to make wagers that will be successful ones? People like to believe that luck is a factor in these things and to a certain extent it does. However, both the agent and the professional gambler know what their respective business is and they do their homework, ie research, before they make their ultimate decision. If Lady Luck is on their side or she is not the professional gambler will know what bet to make that gives them the most chances to win.
If Denny Emerson had a book deal with the best riders after the Pan American games in 2011 in Mexico happened he would have quite a bit of books that would be on the best seller list. Also, if Emerson had made wagers on the results of those games it would be likely that he would have made a sweet profit. In case you are not aware the Eventing Team from the United States took the team gold in a historic effort. In the event all of the 5 US team members did not add anything to their dressage scores, which was the first tim that had happened in the championships for team eventing. If Emerson or any other sports bettor would have wagered on this as well as the team still winning the event they would be a happy camper and by a happy camper I mean a richer one with the bets won. There were great performances in that event by the riders of Buck Davidson and Michael Pollard. These 2 riders were the solid foundation of the effort of the whole US team, which took home the gold medal. Davidson and Pollard are both featured in the bestselling book by Emerson of How Good Riders Get Good and they are both examples of what riders do in order to be at the top as well as what they do to stay there.